crashteamracingpcsteam| Huatai Securities: The proportion of real estate holdings in 24Q1 continues to decline. It is recommended to focus on real estate enterprises with abundant core resources and stable operations
Zhitong Financial APP learned thatCrashteamracingpcsteamAccording to a research report released by Huatai Securities, the proportion of positions held by 24Q1 public offering funds and northward capital real estate has declined. The market value of the former has dropped by 10% from the previous month, and the proportion of positions has reached the lowest level since 2013, while the latter has dropped by 8% from the previous month, and the proportion of positions has continued to hit a new low since 2017. The concentration of shares held by public offering funds has declined for six consecutive quarters, and the market attention is more dispersed. From the perspective of increasing individual stocks, they pay more attention to park development enterprises and excellent property management companies. At present, the overall sales market still needs to recover, housing prices are under pressure, urban market performance is divided, the fundamentals of core cities are relatively better, and investment competition will be more fierce. It is optimistic that there are abundant goods value and strong replenishment capacity in mainstream cities, and high-quality housing enterprises with sound operation.
The main points of Huatai Securities are as follows:
The holdings of real estate stocks in 24Q1 public offering funds have declined, with the proportion of real estate stocks reaching a new low since 2013.
According to Wind, the total market value of fund positions in the 24Q1 real estate sector is 50.5 billion yuan, down 10 per cent from the previous month. The market value of positions in the real estate sector accounts for 0% of the market value of stock investment.Crashteamracingpcsteam.86%, a month-on-month decline in 0.10pct, the lowest level since 2013. The 24Q1 real estate sector has a low proportion of 0.58pct relative to the standard industry, narrowing 0.04pct month-on-month to 48 per cent since 2013. The 24Q1 real estate sector performed poorly, with the Shenwan real estate industry index down 9.5%, and the Shenanlian industry ranked 27ap31. Huatai Securities believes that the fundamentals of the real estate industry still need to be improved in the first quarter, and the success of the sales side is relatively general; corporate debt risk has spread to individual head real estate enterprises, and the repair process of the real estate industry and investor confidence have been disturbed to a certain extent.
The concentration of shareholding has decreased for six consecutive quarters, focusing on park development enterprises and excellent property management companies.
According to Wind data, 24Q1 public offering funds hold market capitalization TOP5 real estate stocks are Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke A, China overseas Development, Huafa shares, in line with 23Q4. Market value of TOP5 real estate stocks account for about 34% of the total market value of positions in the sector, down 5pct from the previous month, falling for six consecutive quarters. Public offering fund positions in the market value of TOP20 real estate stocks, by the fund to increase / reduce the number of shares in the proportion of tradable shares, the more increased holdings are Guanghui Logistics, Metro Holdings, China Merchants surplus, Nanjing Hi-Tech, Shanghai Lingang, China Resources Vientiane Life, and more reduced holdings are Binjiang Group, Huafa shares, Jianfa shares, Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Real Estate, Poly Development, Zhonghai property, Vanke A.
The proportion of capital and real estate allocation going northward has fallen for two consecutive years, reaching a new low since 2017.
The total market value of real estate stocks held by 24Q1 northward capital was 13.6 billion yuan, down 8% from the previous month, accounting for 0.28% of the total amount of funds used by Lugang Tong, with a month-on-month reduction of 0.04pct, continuing to create the lowest level since 2017. Northward capital position market value TOP5 real estate stocks are Poly Development, Vanke A, Merchants Shekou, Jianfa shares, Daming City. Northward capital positions in the market value of TOP20 real estate stocks, measured by the number of shares increased / reduced by the fund in the proportion of tradable shares, the more increased holdings are Daming City, Jianfa shares, Metro Holdings, Merchants Shekou, Wanye Enterprises, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, and the more reduced holdings are Jindi Group, Tianjian Group, Rong'an Real Estate, overseas Chinese Town A, Urban Construction and Development, and China International Trade.
Risk hint
Industry policy risk: due to the change of macro-liquidity and the uncertainty of urban policy regulation and control policies, under the guidance of the new development model, there is a possibility of adjustment and optimization of real estate-related systems in housing, land, finance, finance, taxation and other real estate related fields. may cause disturbance to the operation of real estate enterprises, indemnificatory apartment policy promotion speed is not as fast as the market expected.
Industry downside risks: the scale peak of the real estate industry may have passed, and there are trend downside risks in some key indicators such as regional sales, land acquisition, new construction, investment and so on.
Operational risks of some real estate enterprises: if the operation and financing cash flow repair is lower than expected, some real estate enterprises may still face greater capital chain pressure, leading to operational difficulties and other problems.