flushdraw| Gold market analysis: Strong retail sales in the United States cannot stop gold's rebound
Huitong Financial App News-- on Monday (April 15), the price of gold climbed, and spot gold finally rose 0% on the day.Flushdraw.9% to 2365 per ounceFlushdraw.09 dollars. It hit a record high of $2431.29 on Friday in anticipation of Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel. While yields on the dollar and US Treasuries rose after stronger-than-expected US retail sales data for March, gold rebounded stubbornly at historically high levels, helped by safe-haven demand driven by tensions in the Middle East and unabated investor enthusiasm for gold.
Retail sales data from the US on Monday showed that retail sales rose 0.7 per cent in March from a month earlier, and were revised upwards to 0.9 per cent in February, up from 0.6 per cent. Economists polled by Reuters had expected retail sales (mainly commodities, not adjusted for inflation) to rise 0.3% month-on-month in march. High inflation and strong economic growth have further forced investors to postponeFlushdrawAnticipate when the Fed will begin to cut interest rates and reduce the number of Fed rate cuts this year. This also stimulated the further rise of the dollar. Instead of being hit, however, gold rebounded and recovered most of Friday's losses. So it seems that the biggest support for gold prices in the near future is a drone and missile attack by Iran against Israel over the weekend. The move marks Iran's possible entry into the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict and presents a greater possibility of conflict, which could also involve the United States. Worries about the scale of geopolitical conflicts spill over, keeping gold's enthusiasm for pursuit. Despite the higher-than-expected inflation data last week, the prospect of a prolonged rise in US interest rates has also created some uncertainty about the outlook for gold. However, gold has still made strong gains this year. Goldman Sachs said that since mid-2022, much of the rise in gold has been driven by new incremental (physical) factors, particularly accelerated accumulation by emerging market central banks and an increase in retail buyers in Asia. "these factors have been fully confirmed in the current macro policy and geopolitical environment," Goldman said. In addition, given that the federal funds rate may still be a possible catalyst for slowing ETF resistance later this year, as well as from the US election cycle and fiscal risks, the bullish bias towards gold remains significant. " However,FlushdrawWe should still be wary of whether the recent rally in gold has overpriced the geo-conflict premium. Once the conflict situation slows down, beware of the risk of a sharp correction in gold.
On the technical level, yesterday's market fell first and then rose as scheduled to reach the lower 2325 line of support, but also the support of the 60-day moving average. Although the short-term technical indicators have been adjusted and the adjustment range is relatively large, the overall operation is still above the zero axis, indicating that the strong tone of the overall market has not changed. But as the graphic hint given in this article yesterday, there seem to be signs of top deviation on the daily chart, and it is necessary to be cautious in chasing gold in the near future.
Wang Gang, Bank of China Guangdong Branch
It is only a personal point of view, not the point of view of the organization